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Compartimos  un hecho que nos causa indignación y repudio:

El cambio metodológico que mide también otras actividades ilícitas ya se aplica en otros países europeos. El nuevo cálculo «borra» la recuperación de 2011 y baja el déficit español.

 

Un cambio metodológico y estadístico en el cálculo de la Contabilidad Nacional de España, que incluye el cómputo de actividades ilegales, eleva en 26.193 millones de euros (un 2,5%) el Producto Bruto Interno (PBI) nominal de 2013, que queda en 1.049.181 millones. El nuevo cálculo borra la recuperación de 2011, pero «mantendrá el perfil de W de la crisis».
De acuerdo con los datos que hizo público ayer el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), las actividades ilegales representan el 0,87% del PBI de España, con datos de 2010. «La prostitución representa un 0,35% y el tráfico de drogas, un 0,5%. En concreto, el tráfico de drogas supone unos 5.405 millones de euros del PBI en base 2010, mientras que la prostitución representa unos 3.783 millones». Este 0,87% del PBI está en línea con el 0,7% que se prevé para Reino Unido y es levemente menor al 1% estimado para Italia. En Alemania y Portugal, este tipo de actividades tienen un peso menor, del 0,2% y el 0,4% respectivamente, en su año considerado base para el cálculo.
Entre estas modificaciones metodológicas, realizadas a instancias de organismos internacionales, destacan el propio cambio de base a 2010, la introducción de la economía ilegal (drogas, prostitución, etc., que es una demanda de la Comisión Europea para los países de la región este año) y los nuevos datos del censo 2011. Para realizarlas, el organismo estadístico ha trabajado con más de 500 fuentes.
De los numerosos cambios técnicos que presenta el INE, también destaca el impacto del reconocimiento como inversión (formación bruta de capital fijo) tanto del gasto en investigación y desarrollo (I+D) como del gasto en los sistemas de armamento, que supone el 1,17% del PBI.
Con estos datos, los cambios metodológicos suponen un 1,55% del PBI, mientras que las actividades ilegales representan el 0,87%, con datos de 2010.
Los cambios introducidos en el cálculo del PBI también afectaron en parte a las tasas de crecimiento. Con el nuevo método (base 2010 frente a la base 2008) la economía española siguió contrayéndose un 1,2% en 2013, pero en 2012 cayó un 2,1% (frente al 1,6% estimado hasta ahora) y en 2011 el PBI descendió un 0,6% (un resultado bien distinto del leve crecimiento del 0,1% que arrojaba el anterior dato). Según fuentes del INE, «se trata de una revisión normal, de acuerdo al cambio metodológico que se ha realizado, que no modificará el perfil de ’W’ que se ha vivido en la última crisis».
Así, estas fuentes han explicado cada año, cuando se revisa el PBI de años anteriores, normalmente hay un ajuste de dos o tres décimas, mientras que normalmente cuando se realiza un cambio de base es normal que la cifra sea algo mayor.
Con la revisión del INE, el empleo descendió un 3,3% en 2013.
El ejercicio que peor parado sale en la modificación de la base y de la metodología es el de 2011, ya que la economía pasa de crecer a contraerse y se destruyen más puestos de trabajo.
Hay más efectos por estos cambios. Al ser el PBI mayor (el denominador), la ratio de déficit de las Administraciones Públicas y de deuda pública disminuye. Los expertos calculan que el Gobierno contará con unos 2.000 millones «extra» de margen en las cuentas públicas para cuadrar el déficit público.

 

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